Ukraine’s victory can avert NATO-Russia clash, Estonian defense minister says in exclusive interview

Estonia has emerged as a staunch advocate for Ukraine in its fight against Russia, pushing its NATO allies to step up military aid and make long-term commitments to Kyiv’s defense.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur has been at the forefront of this effort, urging Kyiv’s partners not merely to help Ukraine fight on, but also to achieve victory.
Sharing a border with Russia, the Baltic country of 1.3 million fears that if Ukraine falls, Tallinn might become the next target of Moscow’s expansionist ambitions.
A year and a half after the first interview, the Kyiv Independent sat down with Minister Pevkur again at the Warsaw Security Forum on Oct. 1 to discuss the current state of support for Ukraine and Tallinn’s preparation for a potential clash with Russia.
Occupied by Moscow for half a century, Estonia understands the need to invest more in their own defense and to support Kyiv, the minister says.
While Estonia is the leading supporter of Ukraine in terms of GDP per capita, Pevkur believes this to be the “absolute minimum” of what the allies need to do.
After all, helping Ukraine win the war is the way to avoid an open clash between NATO and Russia, he explains.
The Kyiv Independent: Estonia has been spearheading the idea that allies should devote 0.25% of their GDP to military aid to Ukraine every year. Has this proposal found wider support among the allies?
Hanno Pevkur: It has. Not all allies are doing that, but many are. The Baltic states, Poland, and Norway, have been doing it for a long time, and Denmark has been doing a lot.
So there are many, many allies who are doing that, but this is a trigger to help Ukraine more. We all understand that it doesn’t matter if it’s 0.25% or 1%; the clear aim is still the same: to help Ukraine win the war.
The Kyiv Independent: What capabilities does Ukraine need the most right now?
Hanno Pevkur: It’s not a secret. Air defense is very critical because Russia is still conducting a huge number of air raids. And that means every layer of the air defense, starting from just machine guns and ending with the Patriots.
Of course, ammunition is still very needed on the battlefield. But even with these two main critical needs, Ukraine needs additional training, equipment, basically everything. We are approaching winter, which means that it will also be important to focus on these needs, which are especially important during winter.
The Kyiv Independent: Your country has devoted more than 1% of its GDP to aiding Ukraine. Are you worried that this might undermine your own defense capabilities?
Hanno Pevkur: Of course, it has affected us. But we understand that this is what we do for Ukraine at the moment. It is the absolute minimum because helping Ukraine today helps them fight this war… but not only to fight.
I always said that our aim should not be to help Ukraine fight this war, but our aim should be that Ukraine will win this war. We’ve been lucky that Estonian taxpayers have been very understanding, that we have collected new taxes, and we have had some international donors.
At the moment, I can say that everything we have in Estonia is now in bigger quantities than it was before the full-scale war started in Ukraine.
The Kyiv Independent: Estonia is planning to introduce a security tax, you are planning to increase defense spending, which may eventually have an impact on people’s living standards and the economy. Do you think that Estonian society, and the societies in other Western countries, are ready for that?
Hanno Pevkur: If we don’t do that, we risk losing freedom and independence. When you lose independence, then the consequence is much more dramatic than spending a couple of percentages more on defense. We’ve seen that in 1940 and during the 50 years of occupation, we lost dramatically.
Before the Second World War, the Estonian economy in terms of GDP was the same as it was in Finland. After 50 years, the difference was 17 times (greater for Finland).
So this is the answer: we want to live in freedom, in an independent country. Everybody understands why it is important to pay so much attention to defense.
The Kyiv Independent: Your intelligence warned that NATO should be ready for an open clash with Russia within the next decade. What other practical steps is Estonia taking to prepare itself for such an eventuality?
Hanno Pevkur: First, we are in an alliance called NATO. This club has been successfully defending the peace in the Euro-Atlantic zone for 75 years. This is the biggest and strongest deterrence for any of our adversaries, that we are strong and even stronger together.
Now, Finland and Sweden have also joined NATO, we have increased our defense spending, acquired new ammunition, and a lot of new capabilities in order to defend ourselves. We have basically increased our Territorial Defense Forces two times. We’ve done many things to be ready to defend our country and our people.
But deterrence means that our defense lies on three pillars. The first one is defense willingness, which is very high in Estonian society.
The second one is defense readiness. This is what we are doing. I have already mentioned all the procurements and new capabilities.
The third one is defense cooperation, which means NATO, the European Union, bilateral cooperation agreements, and regional cooperation, such as among the Baltic states or the Joint Expeditionary Force (a U.K.-led military partnership in northern Europe).
And we have (allied troops) in Estonia. On a daily basis, we have more than 2,000 allied soldiers in Estonia from three nuclear countries: the United States, France, and the United Kingdom. This is a very strong deterrent message.
The Kyiv Independent: Russian missiles and drones have repeatedly violated allied airspace, including in your neighbor, Latvia. If Russian projectiles enter Estonian airspace, would the Estonian military shoot them down?
Hanno Pevkur: We have a very clear protocol in place for what happens. Don’t forget that we are living in peacetime. During peacetime, the airspace is open, which means that before shooting something down, we have to identify it to be 100% clear and certain what we will shoot down.
But the protocol is there, and everybody can be safe and secure. There is a list of measures that will be undertaken if something like this happens.
The Kyiv Independent: Some NATO planners projected that in the case of an open clash with Russia, the Baltic states might be overrun before reinforcements can arrive. How do you view these predictions, seeing Ukraine’s experience with Russian occupation?
Hanno Pevkur: I don’t have that crystal ball, and I don’t want to have this crystal ball. I know that the Estonian Army is ready to defend our country and our people.
I know that our allies are ready to do that and that the new regional plans consider all these risks. We will do everything in the near future to be ready to fully implement these plans.
I have no doubts about our allies, and I believe that nobody should have any doubts about the alliance.
The Kyiv Independent: How can NATO avoid an open clash with Russia?
Hanno Pevkur: To help Ukraine win the war and to do everything to increase defense spending in order to increase defense capabilities.
And, of course, we should send out this deterrence message that we are united, that we are not divided, and that we are crystal clear with our actions if necessary.